Esplora ipotesi di trading in ondate continue e le refuta con rigore anti-overfitting (IS/OOS, baseline net-of-market, block bootstrap sulle date, correzione multiple-testing). Il valore è l'onestà: meglio zero scoperte che un falso edge.
idle aggiornamento automatico ogni 20s · ultimo caricamento 2026-08-28 05:08
| Fase | Ipotesi | Significato |
|---|---|---|
| Generate / testate | 35421 | candidate uniche (dedup per fingerprint) |
| Superano FASE 1 (in-sample) | 10877 | edge net-of-market + giorni-trigger sufficienti |
| Raggiungono FASE 2 (OOS) | 10877 | testate sul periodo mai visto |
| Survivors OOS | 93 | reggono OOS (segno, magnitudine, bootstrap < Bonferroni) |
| 👁 Watchlist (FASE 3, fiducia bassa) | 0 | stessi criteri statistici, ma universo young: osservate, non dichiarate |
| 🏆 Promosse (FASE 3 forward) | 0 | reggono anche sul futuro reale, fiducia alta |
| Famiglia | Testate | Refutate | Survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| indicators | 12103 | 12080 | 23 |
| temporal | 9317 | 9303 | 14 |
| price_pattern | 4725 | 4719 | 6 |
| regime | 4101 | 4072 | 29 |
| meanrev_momentum | 2192 | 2190 | 2 |
| funding | 2109 | 2109 | 0 |
| cross_asset | 744 | 725 | 19 |
| volume | 130 | 130 | 0 |
| Fiducia | Stato | Famiglia | Universo | Edge OOS | Edge forward | N fwd | Regola |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BASSA | forward_tracking | price_pattern | young | -2.85% | n/a | 0 | bb_position >= q70(IS) AND dist_from_ema200 >= q90(IS) AND px_vwap <= q30(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | indicators | young | -1.18% | n/a | 0 | bb_position >= q90(IS) AND px_ema50 >= q90(IS) AND vol_percentile_200 >= q90(IS) |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | indicators | young | -2.39% | n/a | 0 | atr_pct >= q90(IS) AND rsi_14 >= q90(IS) AND vol_percentile_200 >= q90(IS) AND BTC bull |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | temporal | young | -0.27% | n/a | 0 | ora=07UTC AND bb_position >= q70(IS) |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | regime | young | -1.27% | n/a | 0 | dist_from_ema200 >= q90(IS) AND volume_zscore >= q90(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | indicators | young | -1.04% | -4.13% | 1 | bb_position >= q90(IS) AND dist_from_ema200 >= q70(IS) AND vol_percentile_200 >= q90(IS) |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | regime | young | -1.17% | n/a | 0 | atr_pct >= q90(IS) AND volume_ratio >= q70(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | indicators | young | -3.59% | n/a | 0 | atr_pct >= q90(IS) AND dist_from_ema200 <= q30(IS) AND px_ema50 >= q90(IS) |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | regime | young | -0.85% | n/a | 0 | atr_pct >= q70(IS) AND volume_zscore >= q90(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | indicators | young | -1.43% | n/a | 0 | atr_pct >= q70(IS) AND bb_position >= q90(IS) AND px_ema21 >= q90(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | regime | young | -1.29% | n/a | 0 | dist_from_ema200 >= q90(IS) AND volume_ratio >= q90(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | indicators | young | -1.35% | n/a | 0 | atr_pct >= q70(IS) AND bb_position >= q90(IS) AND px_ema21 >= q70(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | indicators | young | +0.49% | n/a | 0 | atr_pct <= q30(IS) AND px_ema21 <= q10(IS) AND vol_percentile_200 <= q30(IS) |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | regime | young | -0.76% | n/a | 0 | rsi_14 >= q90(IS) AND volume_zscore >= q90(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | temporal | young | -0.60% | n/a | 0 | giorno=mar AND ora=01UTC AND px_ema21 >= q70(IS) |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | indicators | young | -2.57% | +16.67% | 7 | bb_position <= q30(IS) AND px_ema50 >= q90(IS) AND vol_percentile_200 >= q90(IS) |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | temporal | young | -0.46% | n/a | 0 | giorno=mer AND ora=06UTC AND bb_position >= q70(IS) |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | indicators | young | -0.53% | n/a | 0 | bb_position >= q70(IS) AND vol_percentile_200 >= q70(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | indicators | young | -2.30% | +16.67% | 7 | bb_position <= q30(IS) AND px_ema50 >= q90(IS) AND vol_percentile_200 >= q70(IS) AND BTC bull |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | indicators | young | -0.95% | +0.47% | 32 | bb_position >= q90(IS) AND px_ema50 >= q70(IS) AND vol_percentile_200 >= q90(IS) |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | regime | young | -1.02% | n/a | 0 | dist_from_ema200 >= q90(IS) AND funding_rate >= q90(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | regime | young | -1.35% | n/a | 0 | atr_pct >= q70(IS) AND bb_position >= q90(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | price_pattern | young | -0.68% | n/a | 0 | bb_position <= q10(IS) AND dist_from_ema200 <= q10(IS) AND ret_720 >= q70(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | regime | young | -0.59% | n/a | 0 | bb_position >= q90(IS) AND volume_ratio >= q90(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | regime | young | -0.77% | n/a | 0 | rsi_14 >= q90(IS) AND volume_ratio >= q90(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | regime | young | -0.95% | n/a | 0 | dist_from_ema200 >= q90(IS) AND funding_rate >= q70(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | indicators | young | -1.28% | -1.48% | 29 | bb_position >= q90(IS) AND dist_from_ema200 >= q90(IS) AND vol_percentile_200 >= q90(IS) |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | cross_asset | young | -0.82% | n/a | 0 | beta_btc <= q30(IS) AND corr_btc_30 <= q30(IS) AND rel_strength_btc >= q90(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | regime | young | -0.63% | n/a | 0 | bb_position >= q90(IS) AND volume_zscore >= q90(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | regime | young | -0.86% | n/a | 0 | atr_pct >= q70(IS) AND volume_ratio >= q90(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | indicators | young | -1.08% | -0.70% | 33 | bb_position >= q90(IS) AND rsi_14 >= q90(IS) AND vol_percentile_200 >= q90(IS) |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | regime | young | -0.85% | n/a | 0 | px_ema21 >= q90(IS) AND volume_zscore >= q90(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | regime | young | -1.02% | n/a | 0 | px_ema50 >= q90(IS) AND volume_ratio >= q90(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | temporal | young | -1.13% | n/a | 0 | giorno=lun AND ora=07UTC AND px_ema21 >= q90(IS) |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | cross_asset | young | -0.45% | n/a | 0 | beta_btc <= q30(IS) AND corr_btc_30 <= q10(IS) AND rel_strength_btc >= q70(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | indicators | young | -1.40% | n/a | 0 | atr_pct >= q70(IS) AND bb_position >= q90(IS) AND px_ema50 >= q70(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | indicators | young | -1.03% | -2.31% | 46 | bb_position >= q90(IS) AND px_ema21 >= q90(IS) AND vol_percentile_200 >= q90(IS) |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | regime | young | -0.40% | n/a | 0 | bb_position >= q70(IS) AND volume_ratio >= q90(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | regime | young | -1.14% | n/a | 0 | dist_from_ema200 >= q90(IS) AND volume_ratio >= q70(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | price_pattern | young | -4.64% | n/a | 0 | bb_position >= q70(IS) AND dist_from_ema200 >= q90(IS) AND px_vwap <= q10(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | regime | young | -1.17% | -1.10% | 44 | vol_percentile_200 >= q90(IS) AND volume_ratio >= q90(IS) AND BTC bull |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | regime | young | -0.43% | n/a | 0 | bb_position >= q70(IS) AND volume_zscore >= q90(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | indicators | young | -0.92% | -2.33% | 49 | bb_position >= q90(IS) AND px_ema21 >= q70(IS) AND vol_percentile_200 >= q90(IS) |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | regime | young | -0.98% | +0.14% | 31 | vol_percentile_200 >= q90(IS) AND volume_zscore >= q90(IS) AND BTC bull |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | indicators | young | -0.95% | n/a | 0 | dist_from_ema200 <= q30(IS) AND rsi_14 >= q90(IS) AND vol_percentile_200 <= q30(IS) |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | indicators | young | -2.34% | -3.31% | 46 | atr_pct >= q90(IS) AND bb_position >= q90(IS) AND vol_percentile_200 >= q90(IS) |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | price_pattern | young | -2.29% | -2.90% | 7 | bb_position >= q70(IS) AND dist_from_ema200 >= q70(IS) AND px_vwap <= q10(IS) |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | regime | young | -0.84% | n/a | 0 | px_ema21 >= q90(IS) AND volume_ratio >= q90(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | price_pattern | young | -2.84% | n/a | 0 | bb_position >= q70(IS) AND px_vwap <= q10(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | cross_asset | young | -0.96% | n/a | 0 | beta_btc <= q30(IS) AND corr_btc_30 <= q10(IS) AND rel_strength_btc >= q90(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | cross_asset | young | -2.30% | +5.04% | 17 | beta_btc >= q70(IS) AND corr_btc_30 <= q10(IS) AND rel_strength_btc <= q10(IS) |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | regime | young | -1.15% | +0.10% | 507 | atr_pct >= q70(IS) AND volume_ratio >= q90(IS) AND BTC bull |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | temporal | young | -0.70% | -2.33% | 17 | ora=07UTC AND px_ema21 >= q90(IS) |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | regime | young | -1.79% | +1.01% | 218 | atr_pct >= q90(IS) AND volume_ratio >= q90(IS) AND BTC bull |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | regime | young | -1.02% | n/a | 0 | px_ema50 >= q90(IS) AND volume_zscore >= q90(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | cross_asset | young | -2.72% | n/a | 0 | beta_btc >= q70(IS) AND corr_btc_30 <= q10(IS) AND rel_strength_btc <= q10(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | temporal | young | -0.53% | n/a | 0 | giorno=mar AND ora=03UTC AND px_ema21 >= q70(IS) |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | cross_asset | young | -0.98% | n/a | 0 | beta_btc >= q90(IS) AND corr_btc_30 <= q30(IS) AND rel_strength_btc <= q30(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | cross_asset | young | -0.44% | n/a | 0 | beta_btc >= q70(IS) AND corr_btc_30 <= q30(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | meanrev_momentum | young | -2.10% | n/a | 0 | ret_168 <= q30(IS) AND ret_24 >= q90(IS) AND ret_4 <= q10(IS) AND BTC bull |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | cross_asset | young | -1.17% | +1.36% | 16 | beta_btc >= q90(IS) AND corr_btc_30 <= q30(IS) AND rel_strength_btc <= q10(IS) |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | cross_asset | young | -1.45% | n/a | 0 | beta_btc >= q90(IS) AND corr_btc_30 <= q30(IS) AND rel_strength_btc <= q10(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | indicators | young | -1.75% | -3.27% | 48 | atr_pct >= q70(IS) AND bb_position >= q90(IS) AND vol_percentile_200 >= q90(IS) |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | cross_asset | young | -1.07% | n/a | 0 | beta_btc <= q10(IS) AND rel_strength_btc >= q90(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | temporal | young | -0.56% | n/a | 0 | giorno=lun AND vol_percentile_200 >= q90(IS) |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | regime | young | -1.34% | n/a | 0 | atr_pct >= q90(IS) AND volume_zscore >= q90(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | cross_asset | young | -0.51% | n/a | 0 | corr_btc_30 <= q10(IS) AND rel_strength_btc >= q70(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | cross_asset | young | -0.54% | n/a | 0 | beta_btc <= q10(IS) AND corr_btc_30 <= q10(IS) AND rel_strength_btc >= q70(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | temporal | young | +0.33% | n/a | 0 | giorno=lun AND ora=22UTC AND bb_position <= q30(IS) |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | cross_asset | young | -1.03% | n/a | 0 | corr_btc_30 <= q10(IS) AND rel_strength_btc >= q90(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | cross_asset | young | -1.12% | n/a | 0 | beta_btc >= q70(IS) AND corr_btc_30 <= q10(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | indicators | young | -0.93% | -2.59% | 54 | bb_position >= q90(IS) AND rsi_14 >= q70(IS) AND vol_percentile_200 >= q90(IS) |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | cross_asset | young | -1.10% | n/a | 0 | beta_btc <= q10(IS) AND corr_btc_30 <= q10(IS) AND rel_strength_btc >= q90(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | indicators | young | -0.93% | -2.59% | 54 | bb_position >= q90(IS) AND vol_percentile_200 >= q90(IS) |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | cross_asset | young | -0.50% | n/a | 0 | beta_btc <= q10(IS) AND corr_btc_30 <= q30(IS) AND rel_strength_btc >= q70(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | cross_asset | young | -0.63% | n/a | 0 | beta_btc >= q90(IS) AND corr_btc_30 <= q30(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | regime | young | -1.14% | n/a | 0 | dist_from_ema200 >= q90(IS) AND volume_zscore >= q70(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | cross_asset | young | -1.07% | n/a | 0 | beta_btc <= q10(IS) AND corr_btc_30 <= q30(IS) AND rel_strength_btc >= q90(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | cross_asset | young | -0.49% | n/a | 0 | beta_btc <= q10(IS) AND rel_strength_btc >= q70(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | regime | young | -1.18% | n/a | 0 | atr_pct >= q90(IS) AND volume_zscore >= q70(IS) AND BTC bear |
| BASSA | forward_tracking | meanrev_momentum | young | -0.32% | +0.12% | 1080 | ret_4 >= q90(IS) |
| ALTA | forward_tracking | temporal | majors | +0.69% | -0.28% | 1 | giorno=gio AND ora=20UTC AND bb_position >= q90(IS) |
| ALTA | forward_tracking | indicators | majors | -0.23% | +0.38% | 87 | bb_position <= q30(IS) AND px_ema21 <= q10(IS) AND vol_percentile_200 >= q90(IS) AND BTC bear |
| ALTA | forward_tracking | temporal | majors | -0.40% | +0.03% | 16 | giorno=mar AND ora=09UTC AND rsi_14 <= q10(IS) |
| ALTA | forward_tracking | indicators | majors | -0.21% | +0.38% | 87 | px_ema21 <= q10(IS) AND rsi_14 <= q30(IS) AND vol_percentile_200 >= q90(IS) AND BTC bear |
| ALTA | forward_tracking | temporal | majors | +0.88% | +0.46% | 7 | giorno=gio AND ora=22UTC AND px_ema21 >= q90(IS) |
| ALTA | forward_tracking | temporal | majors | +0.87% | +0.39% | 16 | giorno=ven AND ora=15UTC AND dist_from_ema200 >= q90(IS) |
| ALTA | forward_tracking | temporal | majors | +0.57% | -0.15% | 21 | giorno=gio AND ora=21UTC AND rsi_14 >= q90(IS) |
| ALTA | forward_tracking | temporal | majors | +0.61% | -0.92% | 13 | giorno=gio AND ora=22UTC AND rsi_14 >= q90(IS) |
| ALTA | forward_tracking | regime | majors | -0.79% | n/a | 0 | funding_rate >= q90(IS) AND px_ema21 <= q30(IS) AND BTC bull |
| ALTA | forward_tracking | regime | majors | -0.22% | +0.38% | 87 | px_ema21 <= q10(IS) AND vol_percentile_200 >= q90(IS) AND BTC bear |
| ALTA | forward_tracking | regime | majors | -0.82% | n/a | 0 | bb_position <= q30(IS) AND funding_rate >= q90(IS) AND BTC bull |
| ALTA | forward_tracking | price_pattern | majors | -1.29% | n/a | 0 | dist_from_ema200 >= q70(IS) AND momentum_30d <= q10(IS) AND BTC bear |
Regole dell'universo young che hanno superato gli stessi criteri statistici di una promozione (segno coerente, bootstrap sotto la soglia di Bonferroni, giorni-trigger forward sufficienti, tenuta nel tempo) ma che non vengono dichiarate scoperte: young ha split IS/OOS mediano per-asset, storia corta e selection bias sui token ancora quotati. Si osservano, non si annunciano — nessun avviso Telegram e non contano nelle promosse.
Watchlist vuota: nessuna regola a fiducia bassa ha ancora superato il forward.
Nessuna teoria promossa. Un avviso di scoperta è raro e affidabile per definizione.